September Basho preview
Putting together some thoughts on what we storylines might develop in the upcoming September Grand Sumo Basho.
It's always hard to actually tell what will be relevant towards the end of the tournament, but by the mid-point it's usually clear what to look out for. Here are a handful of likely narratives to pick from, running down the banzuke:
Yokozuna
Hoshoryu Out After Surgery
It's super unlikely that Hosh will be back so soon after getting knee surgery at the end of July - I frankly don't want to see him, I want him recovering and giving himself the best chance possible at coming back stronger. There's a bunch of chatter and gossip, fanned by his stablemaster, but guys have come back from this sort of thing if they get to take care of it properly, so lets hope for the best here and move on.
Onosato Back From Injury
Onosato looked better in July, but he still didn't look like Onosato. 9-6 was a good result for how weak he looked. Pre-basho exhibitions have him winning a lot and sounding optimistic, so he might be back to some kind of power again - we'll know in the first half if he's there, because he'll be 7-1 or better.
Ozeki
Kirishima Yokozuna Run
Kiri has been winner or runner-up in the last 3 tournaments, 2 at Ozeki, but the lack of a strong score (all 12-3) or strong yokozuna getting the Yusho has meant he's still chasing the rope. A 13+ non-playoff yusho would probably be good enough, and like Onosato we'll know if that's a developing story with a 7-1 or better record.
Aonishiki Starting a Yokozuna run
It's almost tiresome to keep talking about him, but it sure as hell isn't yet. Aonishiki has put up 11+ wins in every top division tournament he's competed in uninjured, and just won the last one 12-3 on one foot - he will be a story until he either becomes Yokozuna or calls it quits. A lot can go his way this tournament, but if he's healthy and puts up another jun-yusho+ performance he's likely going into November with the same interest Kirishima has this month. The only predictable wrinkle would be a healthy Onosato going 14-1 or something and lowering the value of another 12-3. What's weird with Aonishiki is that his losses generally don't come from the higher ranks, so a 6-2 record wouldn't be complete disaster for this goal. He's playing with house money though, no consequences for a bad tournament but a lot to gain.
Sekiwake and Komusubi
Atamifuji on a tenuous Ozeki run
Atamin has 3 jun-yusho in 7 tournaments, but more than that he's looked good in 2026. 9+ wins every tournament and he hasn't faltered since finally making it to the san'yaku. More than that though, he's just looked good - strong and in control - much of the time. If he can clean up the silly losses he has a real shot. He's currently officially on an ozeki run with 21 wins in the last 2, so 12 wins this time might be enough with 13 being sure to clinch even without a yusho. 7-1 feels like a minimum with the ramping difficulty of a second-half sekiwake schedule.
Sekiwake Fujinokawa has everything to prove
He's been sat at M2-1 all year and kept up with the challenge going 8-7-8, but the collapse of the lower san'yaku and upper maegashira was necessary to get his san'yaku debut at Sekiwake. He's looked very comfortable fighting the biggest strongest guys in the division, but I'm worried how he'll do as the injuries at the top ease up - his worst result this year was in May when 4 of the top 5 were injured, he can't afford that with a healthy Ono/Ao in attendance.
Upper Maegashira (1-5)
Koto-bros Sharing M1
It'll be really fun to see how Kotoeiho and Kotoshoho compete at the same rank. Eiho is entirely on the up having improved massively since 2025, and Shoho has looked... honestly fine, just a little outmatched in the san'yaku. It's gonna be super hard not to do with them as we did with the Wakas when they were sharing M1 in March last year - but they went and did the boring thing by tying.
Fujiryoga at a career high rank again
He's yet to slip down the banzuke even with a single 7-8 record in March, and he seems to be getting stronger each basho - two 10-5 records in his last two top division matches means we still don't really know what Fujiryoga's natural level is.
Lower Maegashira (6-17)
It's a big group because the stories are less obvious in advance.
Takerufuji back in the pack
After his various injuries it was tempting to write Takerufuji off, but he's honestly looked solid every time he's returned to makuuchi - another point in favour of letting rikishi rest when they're injured. Last time he peaked at M4e, and he's well within striking distance of that rank with a good basho this time. If he's 6-2 or better I think we start to get excited.
Shishi grinding his way up
This one is brief - like Atamifuji, the optimism here isn't just "oo look at his rank" - it's that his good performance last basho looked like it was earned with skill. My biggest concern is that 3 of his 5 losses were to the kind of guys he really ought not to fear, but idk all but one of them finished with 8+ so maybe I'm nit-picking.
God I really hope Wakanosho isn't still hurt
He was 5-0 when he dropped out last time, exactly enough to not get kicked out of makuuchi - he'll get no such good fortune this time so I'm really hoping he's actually healthy and not trying to hobble his way to an 8-7. It'll be very obvious by day 8 which it is.
Makuuchi Debutants - Asasuiryu and Toshinofuji
Both from stables with heavy presence in Makuuchi - 3 others for Asasuiryu's Takasago-beya (including his brother Asakoryu), and 5 (I think) for Toshinofuji's Isegahama - so they'll both have plenty of experience against wrestlers of this calibre. Both went 11-4 to get out of the top of Juryo, so they're strong enough that I think we can expect good things, but first-basho jitters do seem to hit a lot of guys. We'll just have to wait and see, but it'll be hard to ignore if either of them is on a good record by day 8.