RLCS Major 2 Preview and Predictions
As you may have noticed previously, I'm quite the Rocket League enjoyer.
I've tried in the past to write up comprehensive preview or review posts about RLCS events but always find myself getting bogged down in the details of searching for stats to back up or disprove my ideas so they never get posted.
This is a shame imo so I'm going to do this one fairly off-the-cuff, focusing on predictions rather than describing the state of play (though I'll still contextualise where relevant).
My Prediction Format
I like to use a range prediction rather than doing power rankings - just saying "I think this team is 7th best" doesn't really give much flavour imo, because there are teams with low floors that are absolutely capable of winning an event (Spacestation???) that you always have to mark down because of those weaker on-the-day performances. This range prediction gives flexibility.
The rest of this post is largely based on this chart. (I'll try to come up with a more screen-reader friendly format for next time, this is just the image I used to talk ball with friends and this post is purposefully low effort).
One caveat for this chart is that I try to keep the number of "possible positions" down to less than 1/3 of the possible positions (9th-11th is one position) just to avoid spamming. That means I've kind of underestimated some of the upper and lower ranges vs what I actually believe.
EU Seems Strong
The big story of this season has been "can anyone beat KC" and the answer within Europe has been "yeah lol". They've lost to NiP, Geekay, and Dignitas in EU regional events this season, but unfortunately of those 3 only Dignitas qualified for this event. They've looked incredible against the rest of EU but in the last online open got 4-0'd in a classic "KC win it all" top 8 bracket. KC went 12-3 in that bracket, somehow only tied for their 3rd best event this season (and they lost the other 2).
So yeah KC and Dig can win it but I don't have massive confidence in Dig on LAN yet. Vitality are pretty much always a threat if they can get it together for a day so I always put the top of their range at 1st. Gentlemates are the only outlier here as the clearly weakest team in terms of past results, but to be honest they've been popping off lately and took 2 of KC's 3 lost games so who knows. EU's just strong right now.
NA Looks Alright
NRG are gonna NRG - they always look a little flat when the stakes are low, and they've been fully qualified for everything for a while now so I don't take recent results too seriously. Losing to Ultimates was basically fate so it doesn't count - they're the only team outside EU I give a reasonable chance of winning the Major at this point.
SSG are the team to watch though - a very young squad (15, 17, and 19 💀) with an exciting intuitive playstyle, they initially formed from the ashes of frosty getting kicked from NRG before they replaced him with kofyr in the 2nd half of the season and have looked exceptional. While I don't expect them to win it, there's no team I'd be more excited to see make the run. They play Rocket League like I think I'm gonna play Rocket League when I boot it up.
Ultimates look good but I don't have the faith in them, and Gen.G have been a delightful surprise since picking up jstn but they ain't winning a major.
Falcons Kinda Fell Off
It's hard to say a squad with 5/6 regional wins this year and a history of 2nd places is looking weak, but this seems the closest we're gonna get. After 5th in Major 1 I just don't have the faith that Falcons can win a non-Saudi international anymore, and looking closer at their recent results they're getting pushed to deciding games rather often by teams I'd expect them to be stomping. This could be MENA depth in action, but two of those teams are basically 2nd-rate EU import teams so idk.
Twisted Minds are one of those import teams, with their only MENA player being a kid who was so racist it destroyed the most well-liked org in the scene, so idk fuck those guys. They were shit at Major 1 and they'll be shit here.
A small note on SAM here as well - Furia look similar to Falcons with 5/6 opens, losing one due to a tech issue, but SAM just isn't as strong so I can't give them too much credit on that basis. I consider both teams equally strong without international comparisons, with Secret a classic filler team.
Nobody Else Makes Top 8 IMO
It's a hard time to be from a Minor region in Rocket League. If it's not dynastic dominance from Falcons and Furia, it's EU/NA import players booting you aside for a chance to go out 12-16th, or you're OCE and thus exist entirely to score one (1) upset then get eliminated in Swiss.
The smallest two regions (Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia-Pacific) have 1 local representative among their 6 players - sphinx is a really exciting and talented player for sure, but that just means he gets brought in on the exploitation rather than getting stuck watching import players take his money. sphinx's team got APAC's best ever result at the last international (9-11th) and I could not care less. I suppose it's impressive that a couple of washed Major region pensioners were able to win 2 matches, but they were against two OCE squads who couldn't even manage their one (1) Psyonix mandated upset.
For real, fuck these colonisers. I will never give them the grace of predicting them above last place.
I'd even go so far as to say that it's possible - with a terrible Swiss draw - that we have only EU/NA teams in top 8 this time.
I Don't Think That Means It'll Be Boring
I might sound kind of down on Rocket League Esports at the moment but I'm more down on the organisational structures - the players are still doing great stuff and pushing the meta, and more and more we're seeing teams prove that with exposure to greatness they can learn from it - I just need Psyonix to impose real protections on minor region players, or we're going to lose those whole ecosystems.
The team that wins this Major will be very, very good at Rocket League.